BR
The basics
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American politician
Gender:
Male
Places:
Is:
Work field:
Birth:
15 June 1963(Springdale, Arkansas, USA)
Star sign:
Politics:
Education:
Southwest Baptist University
Harvard Law School
The details
Biography
Introduction
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The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2023, this was the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri. This is the last time that a gubernatorial nominee and a lieutenant gubernatorial nominee of different political parties were elected governor and lieutenant governor in Missouri.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- William Campbell
- Jay Nixon, incumbent governor
- Clay Thunderhawk
Results
The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Nixon (incumbent) | 269,865 | 86.0% | |
| Democratic | William Campbell | 25,721 | 8.2% | |
| Democratic | Clay Thunderhawk | 18,228 | 5.8% | |
| Total votes | 313,814 | 100.0% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Bill Randles, businessman and corporate defense lawyer
- Fred Sauer, investment executive and anti-abortion activist
- Dave Spence, businessman
- John Weiler
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Bill Randles |
Fred Sauer |
Dave Spence |
John Weiler |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | August 4–5, 2012 | 590 | ± 4.0% | 15% | 12% | 42% | 3% | 29% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 15% | 1% | 41% | 3% | 40% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 430 | ± 4.7% | 11% | 4% | 32% | 1% | 43% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 574 | ± 4.1% | 15% | — | 11% | — | 74% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dave Spence | 333,578 | 59.9% | |
| Republican | Bill Randles | 90,651 | 16.3% | |
| Republican | Fred Sauer | 83,695 | 15.0% | |
| Republican | John Weiler | 49,006 | 8.8% | |
| Total votes | 556,930 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
- Jim Higgins, former officer of the Libertarian Party of Missouri
Denied ballot access
- Leonard Steinman
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jim Higgins | 2,500 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 2,500 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, September 21, 2012
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Likely D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Dave Spence (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 53% | 45% | — | 2% |
| SurveyUSA | October 28–November 3, 2012 | 589 | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | 5% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 48% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 19–21, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 51% | 40% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 1–3, 2012 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 35% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 20, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 37% | — | 16% |
| Survey USA | August 9–12, 2012 | 585 | ± 4.1% | 51% | 37% | 5% | 6% |
| Chilenski Strategies | August 8, 2012 | 663 | ± 3.8% | 53% | 39% | — | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 34% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 27% | — | 26% |
Hypothetical polling
- Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
error |
Peter Kinder |
Bill Randles |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 34% | 14% | 53% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
error |
Peter Kinder |
Someone else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 22% | 35% | 43% |
- General election
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Bill Randles (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | July 23–25, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 35% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 24–27, 2012 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 32% | — | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 27–29, 2012 | 582 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 29% | — | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 24% | — | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Matt Blunt (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 38% | — | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
John Danforth (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 39% | 45% | — | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Kenny Hulshof (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 34% | — | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Peter Kinder (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 50% | 31% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 28-May 1, 2011 | 555 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 34% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling | March 3–6, 2011 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 | 515 | ± 4.3% | 47% | 39% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Sarah Steelman (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Nov. 29-December 1, 2010 | 515 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size |
error |
Jay Nixon (D) |
Jim Talent (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | September 9–12, 2011 | 632 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 38% | — | 14% |
Results
Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jay Nixon (incumbent) | 1,494,056 | 54.77% | -3.63% | |
| Republican | Dave Spence | 1,160,265 | 42.53% | +3.04% | |
| Libertarian | Jim Higgins | 73,509 | 2.70% | +1.59% | |
| Write-in | 53 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,727,883 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
- Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
- Knox (Largest city: Edina)
- Lewis (Largest city: Canton)
- Mississippi (Largest city: Charleston)
- Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Andrew (Largest city: Savannah)
- Atchison (Largest city: Tarkio)
- Benton (Largest city: Warsaw)
- Caldwell (Largest city: Hamilton)
- Camden (Largest city: Osage Beach)
- Carter (Largest city: Van Buren)
- Cass (Largest city: Harrisonville)
- Cedar (Largest city: El Dorado Springs)
- Crawford (Largest city: Cuba)
- Dallas (Largest city: Buffalo)
- Daviess (Largest city: Gallatin)
- Dent (Largest city: Salem)
- Douglas (Largest city: Ava)
- Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
- Howell (Largest city: West Plains)
- Laclede (Largest city: Lebanon)
- Lincoln (Largest city: Troy)
- Livingston (Largest city: Chillicothe)
- Maries (Largest city: Belle)
- Morgan (Largest city: Versailles)
- Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
- Ozark (Largest city: Gainesville)
- Phelps (Largest city: Rolla)
- Polk (Largest city: Bolivar)
- Pulaski (Largest city: Fort Leonard Wood)
- Ripley (Largest city: Doniphan)
- St. Clair (Largest city: Appleton City)
- Texas (Largest city: Licking)
- Vernon (Largest city: Nevada)
- Webster (Largest city: Marshfield)
By congressional district
Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts.
| District | Nixon | Spence | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 81.38% | 13.21% | Lacy Clay |
| 2nd | 50.67% | 47.37% | Todd Akin (112th Congress) |
| Ann Wagner (113th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 48.20% | 49.08% | Russ Carnahan (112th Congress) |
| Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 49.16% | 47.46% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 66.00% | 31.20% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 50.09% | 46.96% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 43.75% | 53.39% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 48.27% | 49.06% | Jo Ann Emerson |